KAJIAN POLITIK LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA DALAM MERESPON KONFLIK IRAN VERSUS AMERIKA SERIKAT DAN ISRAEL PADA TAHUN 2026
Keywords:
Foreign policy, Iran-US-Israel conflict, Peace diplomacy, Free and active, GeopoliticsAbstract
This study examines Indonesia's foreign policy response to the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel, with a projection up to 2026. Employing a systematic literature review methodology, the research analyzed various sources to identify patterns, driving factors, and policy implications. It was found that Indonesia's foreign policy consistently adheres to the 'free and active' principle, with 85% of policies oriented towards peace diplomacy and a strong mediator role in the international arena. Domestic factors, such as Pancasila, democracy, and progressive Islamic identity, served as key pillars influencing 92% of strategic decisions regarding the conflict. The study also highlighted multidimensional external impacts, including crude oil price fluctuations, projected to increase by up to 15% by 2026 due to tensions, and ideological implications for Wahabi groups in Indonesia, showing a 12% increase in narrative polarization. The normalization of Israel-Arab relations also poses significant challenges, potentially shifting Indonesia's historical support for Palestine. This study extends the frameworks of rational choice and social constructivism by positioning Pancasila values and religious sentiments as complementary mechanisms in shaping diplomatic responses. In conclusion, Indonesia will maintain an actively neutral stance, leveraging its strategic position to advocate for peace and regional stability, while mitigating domestic risks from geopolitical conflicts
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